Seniors not on leading edge of autonomous car adoption

Benefits to seniors for self driving cars over-hyped

The number of drivers over 70 on the road has grown 58% between 1997 and 2017, and these drivers have higher accident rates than other drivers. Autonomous car companies have predicted that seniors will be major beneficiaries of this technology, and will help drive adoption. This may be an exaggeration, according to Wired, as two factors need to be considered.  First, seniors’ longer response time requires that cars be completely autonomous (level 5 on the autonomy scale, and today’s cars are at level 2), and that is a long way off. Secondly, cars for seniors need to be designed by and for seniors, with information telling them what is happening at all times, and with knobs and displays that are extremely senior friendly. No one is taken these factors into consideration, according to Wired, and therefore saying autonomous cars are great for seniors is, at this stage, hype.

dis-rup-shun: Seniors are a demographic that will not be on the leading edge of autonomous car adoption. They are likely the last group to jump into a driverless car, and their loved ones will be reluctant to do that to them until the technology is very well proven. As with ride sharing services focused on seniors, there will be autonomous car models that are more senior-friendly (maybe sold by Cadillac?) — a Jitterbug on wheels, so to speak. The point is, there is plenty of time to optimize auto cars for seniors and this demographic will not be a driver for early adoption.

Tesla shows some love to early, abandoned buyers

Tesla is promising to do better to owners of its first car, the Tesla Roadster, released in 2008 through 2012. Tesla stopped making spare parts for the Roadster and does not offer service through the mainstream app used by owners of current models. Jerome Guillen, President of Automotive, indicated in an email to Roadster customers that they will get their own, dedicated service advisor. CNBC

dis-rup-shun: Tesla, as well as its customers, are pioneers with a ring-side seat to what could become the transformation of cars as we know them, to predominantly electric. As we know, you can always spot a pioneer because they are the people with an arrow in their backs. Tesla owners are no exception. The next 18 months feel like a tipping point for Tesla — if the company can grow revenues, then it may just make it for the long haul, or be acquired by a larger entity (Apple would be cool). Bad reports from Tesla employees and disgruntled car owners would force the company to focus even more energy and capital on Europe and Asia, where it is receiving a strong reception. Tesla’s withdrawal from the U.S. market would likely cool electric car development efforts by GM, Chrysler, Ford, and Toyota, and that would be unfortunate.

Qualcomm releases 5G chipsets

Qualcomm is a global leader in chipsets found in smartphones, and yesterday the company unveiled two new chipsets that support 5G. When it arrives en masse (in 2020), 5G networks will enable mobile gaming and mobile video at speeds not seen before in consumer products. The new chipsets have faster speeds, more AI capacity, and, of course, the ability to connect to new 5G networks. Wired

dis-rup-shun: The timing of Qualcomm’s announcement means it is likely that many 5G capable phones will flood the market in the second half of 2020. As stated previously, next year’s holiday commercials will be all about special deals to entice users to upgrade their handsets for 5G models. Those who are excited about the potential of 5G won’t be upgrading phones for the next six to eight months as they wait for the new technology.

Amazon releases wireless Echo for India

India has proven to be a hot market for Echo, and the most requested enhancement has been portability. The new mobile model sells for $84 and has a 10 hour battery life. TechCrunch

dis-rup-shun: If the Echo is really Amazon’s household Trojan Horse, what are the profitable services that the company will grow in India? According to its website, Amazon.in was the source of over 50% of online purchases in the country. The category of highest value for Indian shoppers was smartphones, followed by fashion and consumables, then large appliances. While Echo has not yet become a strong shopping platform, Amazon continues to push aggressively across the globe, and will likely not face in India the regulatory threats being proposed by the U.S. and E.E. regulators, meaning the company could have a lot larger share of a much larger market (albeit with less spending power) in a short period of time.

Amazon grocery stores and lessons on retail

What proposed Amazon grocery stores teach us about retail

Amazon has signed leases and completed permits for dozens of grocery stores — not Whole Foods — in major urban centers including Los Angeles, Irvine, New York, Connecticut and New Jersey. Wall Street Journal

dis-rup-shun: Amazon’s expansion plans for brick and mortar retail stores – grocery stores — is curious given the company’s dominance of online selling. It is important for all industries to understand that Amazon is not content with dominating online sales, but wants to dominate sales of anything through any channel. What other conclusions should we draw from this initiative?

  1. Certain product categories won’t move substantially to online sales. Amazon has likely learned that grocery delivery will not soon move beyond niche or luxury service, and the bulk of food sales will remain brick and mortar.
  2. Amazon wants as many touch points as it can get. Almost everyone goes to the grocery store, so Amazon’s presence in the grocery store means it has the eyeballs of most everyone.
  3. Amazon should no longer be classified as an online retailer. As stated before, dominating online sales is too limiting for the company’s ambitions.
  4. The economics of cashier-less stores change the profit margins of brick and mortar retailing. Most retail stores struggle to produce thin profit margins. Reducing the number of clerks required will profit a margin advantage.
  5. The Whole Foods acquisition is proving to be more of an experiment. It seems that Amazon’s acquisition of Whole Foods was more opportunistic than strategic, as the chain seems to be a hot bed of experimentation.
  6. Amazon may be changing the idea of food market to corner store — returning to a time when smaller neighborhood stores provided a small number of diverse goods, more similar to 7-Eleven crossed with the now extinct dime store category.

Microsoft launches ARM-based Surface Pro-X – big deal?

Microsoft has launched its first ever ARM processor based PC, using its own chipset, based on a partnership with Qualcomm. The Surface Pro-X processor includes an AI engine, and the device incorporates a removable hard drive. TechCrunch

dis-rup-shun: Why is this announcement a radical move for Microsoft? First of all, this product moves Microsoft one step further from its decades old, tight marriage with Intel — or Wintel, as the marriage was called. Previously Microsoft has not created its own processors, and has almost never released a non-Intel PC. Microsoft missed the entire smartphone revolution and many attribute this miss on Intel’s inability to compete with ARM processors that are the mainstay of smartphones. Additionally, the deeper Microsoft goes into manufacturing its own devices, the more it competes with its best Windows and Office customers, Dell, Acer, HP and Lenovo. Could this move be a bookend to a new product line that starts with the Surface Duo (see below), or is this a defensive move against upstart PC substitutes such as Chromebook?

Microsoft Surface Duo is folding phone or mini-PC

Microsoft surprised watchers yesterday by announcing the Surface Duo, an Android device that runs Windows applications via Windows 10X, an operating system variant that enables the device to run multiple apps at once, using each screen for a different app. The device will be available late 2020. CNBC

dis-rup-shun: Microsoft, like Amazon, Facebook, Google and, of course, Apple, has caught hardware fever — joining the rush to create new categories of devices to dominate before its competitors do. A Microsoft app-running foldable phone makes more sense than the Samsung fold, as the extra real estate afforded by dual screens fills the narrow gap between the Surface or tablet and Microsoft Office applets on smartphones — usable but only in dire circumstances. With a Surface Duo, one could actually sit in coach class and complete a proposal or spreadsheet without contorting the body.

Netflix subscriber base will not be eroded by new competitors

A survey by Piper Jaffray concluded that despite the impending competitive streaming offerings by Disney or Apple, Netflix will not lose many subscribers. 

The analyst firm believes that most Netflix subscribers will stick with the service, and not churn to competitors, and remains bullish on the company’s prospects, saying the competitive threats are already priced into the company’s share price. CNBC

dis-rup-shun: It is true that Netflix subscribers remain pleased with the service and their return on subscription fee. The problem remains, however, that Netflix won’t reach profitability and a positive return on its large investments in original content unless they win many new subscribers in the future. The pie of people who are not yet Netflix subscribers has been sliced into many pieces by competitors who have a stronger catalog of content than Netflix (Disney and Apple for starters), and who have the potential to bundle other services (AT&T). It is not losing existing subscribers, but rather the escalating cost of new customer acquisition that is keeping Netflix execs up at night.